For the last 30 years, Austin’s real estate market had a predictable seasonality to it.  You could count on March through May being the peak of the market.  Real estate agents would list homes for sale in March with confidence that the listings would sell for more than any other time of the year.

And then Covid happened.

It blew Austin’s predictable seasonality to bits.

Suddenly, any time was a good time to sell.  Home prices appreciated at a break-neck pace.  Sellers were thrilled.  Buyers clawed through lines at open houses and battled it out in multiple offers.  We knew this wasn’t sustainable, and soon enough the Fed said the party was over.  April 2022 ended up being the peak of Austin’s real estate market.

Of course, Realtors assumed we’d return to business as usual, but the following Spring 2023 market didn’t fit the seasonal mold exactly.  Instead, we saw bursts of activity and even price appreciation, but those bursts came earlier and were short lived, with prices declining after.  Was this just a Covid hangover?

Nope.  The Spring 2024 market was also early and short-lived.  Our listings that we intentionally launched early in February 2024 got multiple offers over asking price their first weekend on the market while our listings that went on the market in March sat there for months, punished by rising interest rates and massive competition.  We were lucky, and all of our listings sold last year. That wasn’t the norm, however.  Only 1 in 5 Austin homes sold in 2024. 

Don’t be fooled by the Spring of deception

For awhile Austin topped the chart of most desirable place to live in the U.S., and that drove demand (and home prices) too high, too fast.  However, the pool of seemingly insatiable home buyers shrunk in recent years.  Prices have become unattainable for many, higher interest rates reduced buyer purchasing power, hiring slowed, and more employers required employees to go back to the office. With a smaller pool of buyers, there is less demand for homes.  

Remember how only 1 in 5 Austin listings sold in 2024?  Those four homes that didn't sell had to go somewhere.  Some sellers opted to hold onto their property and delay moving.  Others chose to rent their property with the idea of selling in the future when the market improves.  And others pulled their homes off the MLS and parked them in the off market real estate portals (What’s that?  Read this blog post) with the intent of putting them on the MLS again in -- you guessed it -- the Spring.

A tsunami of homes is coming

Right now a storm is brewing in Austin real estate.  There’s no reliable way to calculate the number of homes on the various private market portals, but based on my own manual tally, there are more homes for sale on the private market right now than there are listed on the MLS. 

Say what?

I repeat -- you will find more homes for sale in the private, non-public portals than you will find in the public-facing portals that syndicate from the MLS.  

That means home buyers that aren’t working with an agent that pays to subscribe to ALL of the private market portals are missing out on most of the available homes. 

Here’s my informal calculation:

• 3,210 Austin listings are available for sale in the various off-market portals (this is slightly inflated because 1 home may appear on multiple off market sites, but it is a notable jump from the 1,000 homes I calculated in January 2025)
• only 2,191 single-family homes are listed for sale in the MLS
• another 2,466 homes are available for rent 

Yikes.

I predict that at least a third of those 3,210 listings in the off market portals will soon be listed for sale on the MLS this Spring.  And I think a lot of those that are currently listed for rent will switch to for sale.  And it’s not just my intuition.  My lenders, title reps, and others are all telling me stories that agents have X listings ready to go and are just waiting for March. 

That’s all well and good if our market behaved according to its traditional seasonal trends, but remember how I said Covid unmoored our seasonality?  I don’t think we are going to see a burst of buyer interest in March that matches the flood of listings that are coming. 

Good for buyers, bad for sellers

The tsunami of homes is good news for buyers.  There will be a TON of home inventory to choose from and with so much competition among sellers, buyers will be able to dictate the terms they like (except for those nicely updated homes that are priced to move).

What sellers need to know is that it is often easier and more fruitful to sell when the market has fewer homes available.  A flood of housing inventory is not going to help you sell your home quickly and for top dollar.

That’s why you saw us list homes in January and early February this year.  It’s better to be ahead of the tsunami.

Know what you’re getting into (my predictions for the 2025 real estate market)

The Austin real estate market is moving, but it’s definitely different than the crazy Covid years.  If you are thinking of buying or selling in 2025, here’s the movement we are seeing for single-family homes in the City of Austin (not metro):

• Around 10% of homes are getting multiple offers (compare this to 2021 when it was about 40%)
• The median home price is $565,500 right now.  
• It’s taking around 66 days for homes to go under contract.  Sellers should be prepared to sit on the market for awhile, and buyers don’t have to feel rushed to make a decision.
• Sellers are selling for around 7% less than their original list price and around 3% less than their current list price. Sellers should get ready to make some price adjustments, and buyers can be bullish with their negotiations.
• A little fix up goes a long way.  Buyers are balking at builder-grade kitchens, popcorn ceilings, old roofs, and boring houses.  They want sexy.  They want move-in ready.  It may be worth it to install a new light fixture, upgrade your counters, or swap out the carpet, but you have to reach a tipping point that makes it meaningful.  We can help you figure out where that point lies.

 If you are thinking about selling your home:   If I am right about the tsunami of homes, you only have a couple of weeks to get your home on the market or lower your price and go pending before the listing floodgates open and buyers have an even larger upper hand.  Keep these four tips in mind:

1) When you sell your home, the listing price is your strongest marketing tool.  Get clear about your numbers, and don’t aim too high.  In this market over-pricing your home from the start is the worse thing you can do.

2) Give yourself the best shot of selling by ensuring your home is updated and on-trend.  New light fixtures, some paint, and countertops are usually going to cost you less than your first price reduction.

3) Don't cling too tightly to your original list price.  Be prepared to make meaningful pricing adjustments that will get you in front of a new pool of buyers.

4) Be patient. If you don't sell, be prepared for at least another year of this market.

 If you are thinking about buying a home:    You are likely going to be happy with your choices and negotiation power in the coming months.  If you want to get a head start, nudge your agent to search the off market portals for you.  And if they tell you they’ve looked, ask them to name at least four private portals they are actively checking.  If they can’t do that, find someone else to represent you.

Ride the wave 

Folks, I would love to be wrong about the massive amount of home inventory that I think is about to be unleashed on the Austin market.  While I don't know how it's all going to turn out, I do have the benefit of having ridden this wave a time or two in my career.  

Even when there is a glut of listings, we know what levers to pull to get your home sold, and we know how to help buyers navigate an abundance of choices. If you'd like someone to guide you through this next wave in real estate, I'd be honored to be considered by you or your friends.

February 2025